According to Pete Alcorn, we are only 150 years away from a new Enlightenment period due to a decrease in population and raised wages and opportunities. We should be looking towards the future with more optimism than ever before.

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This is Pete Alcorn’s theory. At the beginning of his explanation, he admits that he was once a follower of Malthus, but now he understands the need to overcome this way of thinking. In 1798, the English economist published An Essay on the Principle of Population, as it affects the future improvement of society, in which he explained his theory that population was held within resource limits by two types of checks: positive ones, which raised the death rate, and preventative ones, which lowered the birth rate. The positive checks included hunger, disease and war; the preventative checks, abortion, birth control, prostitution, postponement of marriage, and celibacy. Population, according to his theory tended to grow in a geometric progression.

Malthus’ theory, while seemingly negative, is not without justification. Pete Alcorn, at a conference held by TED (a non-profit group that organizes events and conferences), invites us to step away from Malthus and embrace his theory on the new Enlightenment. According to economic models, a declining population has two main benefits. One benefit is a reduction in land prices, which lifts a burden off of the poorer populace. Secondly, a drop in population brings about a scarcity of labor, which then creates wage increases. After 30% to 60% of Europe’s population was killed during the Black Death in the 14^th century, Europe saw these changes come about, including technological innovation and the birth of the middle class. The immense decline in population gave rise to a forward social-economic movement in Europe: the Renaissance and the Enlightenment. Pete Alcorn, the head of podcasting for Apple, believes that we are only 150 years away from another Enlightenment period.

Alcorn points out that according to the UN’s population data, the world’s population is expected to top off at about 10 billion in the late century. It is also projected that the population will most likely begin to decline afterwards. Although it seems natural to assume that a declining population is a negative thing for our society, it is, in fact, going to lead to positive social movements.

More often than not, we tend to romanticize the past, while fearing the evitable downfall of the future. Instead, Alcorn believes that we need to start romanticizing the future, for he foresees only positive changes for our world. One should consider, however, that it is crucial that people keep a positive outlook; transitions in any form are dangerous times and often lead to rash decision-making. With all of our technological and scientific advancements, coupled with a declining population, we should look forward to the fact that our future generations will be able to benefit from the 22^nd century Enlightenment.

More Info.:

• http://www.ted.com/speakers/pete_alcorn.html
• http://www.ted.com/talks/pete_alcorn_s_vision_of_a_better_world.html